PROFESSIONALS DISCUSS BETTER BETTING
26 Feb 2015 - Professionals Discuss Better Betting, Including Exotics
ChampionBets lined up three expert guests with differing backgrounds and opinions on the pro's and cons of the exotics:
Nathan Snow - NSW thoroughbred pro punter and former bookmaker
Greg Lethe - 25 years and counting as a professional greyhound punter
Greg Conroy - founder and inventor of RewardBet
If you've already watched the webinar replay, see below for more information on the topics discussed during the presentation.
NB: The first 5 mins (intro) was missed in the recording.
We present all the slides and the information from the discussion here for you to examine.
Slide 1 - Introduction to the webinar - outlining the topics we'll discuss.
Slide 2 - The history of exotics for the Australian punter was not so good.
As the technology of the TABs was limited, most punters were taught to play exotic betting by using the ubiquitous "box". This was super convenient, as it only required one ticket or one quick input by the Telephone Operator. However, just like fast-food, a diet of quick, super convenient food isn't always best for you!
Box betting - whether it's a standard 1 unit box (eg, $6 trifecta for 3 runners) or even "affordable" box betting - AKA "flexi betting" - still has the fundamental mathematical issue that every combination has the same stake placed on it. You are saying that every combination has the same chance of winning!
When you are win betting, and you have two selections, one at $3 and the other at $85, you'd be very silly to put the same amount on each win bet. But every-time a punter takes a box exotic, this is what they are doing.
So besides the mathematical disadvantage punters had, the TAB also left them in the dark regarding approximate dividends, estimates of their returns and even the interfaces they were provided to create their exotic bets. Many professionals with more sophisticated access to place bets reaped millions of dollars from the "mug exotic punter" during these years, and continue to do so.
Slide 3 - The five golden rules of Exotic Betting today.
1. Across exotics, many combinations are "overbet" meaning that your dividends are going to be less than you deserve. However, this means that many combinations are also "underbet" allowing you to receive more. It's like a see-saw. The easiest way to profit from exotic betting is to resist doing what "everyone else" is thinking. If the race looks to have only three strong chances then probably best to leave it alone rather than taking a box trifecta across those chances. Target the opportunities where others can't be bothered. If there are two very strong chances, equal favourites, don't you think most people would think that is an easy quinella combination? Maybe take the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th favourites as bankers for 1st with the two main favourites to get pipped and run into a place. You'll be well rewarded with such thinking!
2. RewardBet has a patented "market gauge" that quickly gives you an indication of the percentage of the field you've chosen for first. Use this as your guide as to how many runners to bank for 1st, rather than an arbitrary number where you say "I'll bank my top two". This doesn't make sense. If your top two are $10 chances you still have plenty of opportunity to add a few other selections - be guided by percentages rather than silly rules that you've developed bad habits about from your history of taking standout bets with the TAB.
3. This should come as no surprise. Box betting should generally be avoided (it is OK for very small stake outlays). You know it - if there's a photo-finish and you have both runners, you'll always hope the outsider gets up. That's because every punter that takes a box bet inherently knows that the only time they receive better than average returns is when the most improbable thing happens. You are hoping for the most unlikely event - Is that anyway to bet? By staking professionally according to every percentage chance for each combination, you will win more than box betting - the maths prove it - and it's why the professionals have been reaping such returns for so many years taking advantage of the TAB retail players.
4. Every time you take a "field" bet you are simply hoping that an outsider will get up to provide some value. This is simply silly, uneducated betting. Field betting is for mugs and you are just donating your money to the professionals.
5. The old habits of formulated rules for standout betting which many punters still have are now outdated. There is NO reason to bet like that anymore, other than bad habits.
Slide 4 - Some smart plays for Exotic betting.
1. Structure your total stake properly. Many punters have very bad habits. For example, you have $100 to bet on a race. You'll spend $50 on your win bets, $20 on a box Quinella and $30 on a flexi trifecta box. You'll repeat similar outlays every race no matter what! The best way to bet is to structure your outlays across your different bet types according to each individual race. For example, if you have a high market gauge (as RewardBet shows), then you may have 70% of the market covered by your picks. In this example you're not going to have much scope to win much on the win, so you are better advised to put all your money into your exotic bets - across Quinella, Exactas and Trifectas. Conversely, if you only have 10% of the market, then you are much better off concentrating on mainly the Win bet and having only a small amount (15% of our outlay) on exotics. RewardBet allows you to do this instantly in a single click by choosing a Reward Level. The estimated returns quickly show you what you can expect to get back if you win and you can let this guide you towards the best structure of outlays across the different bet types automatically and professionally.
2. Avoid first fours. Our models show they are not a very good bet type to bet - although many punters are VERY attracted to them as they dream and hope of massive dividends! Wagering is not a dream ... if you want to dream, take a lottery ticket. The great thing about race betting is that you can control your own destiny by staking correctly. Sure, you can have a little 'fun bet' once in a while to try and snare an impossible return but most of your betting should be better applied. First fours have the highest take out (so maths is working against you), have volatile returns and are extremely difficult to hit. RewardBet's designed to HELP the punter win more - so we've left first fours out of our mix to help you.
3. The favourite vs longshot bias you should be well aware of. Due to the prevalence of field betting and also flexi betting, many longshots are overbet and conversely favourites are underbet. RewardBet provides a simple interface to change the price of runners. If you put in a $50 shot into your RewardBet, consider if its "true" price should be $80 - with a few clicks you can structure your RewardBet so that the selection is bet like an $80 shot. Similarly, you can easily change the price of that $3 favourite to $2.40 so that you'll have more of your money on it and reap the rewards if you are right.
4. Think about what the person in "Tab land" is probably doing and try and avoid it. Are they standing out the obvious favourite? Maybe there's value in taking a reduced bet and taking that favourite to come 2nd/3rd instead? There are many examples everyday where you can work things in your favour. A tip? If you have the TV racing on, mute the volume until the race starts - that way you don't get conned into taking the spruik horses by the commentators and mounting yard "experts".
5. Some professionals we know deliberately bet about 10 mins before the race into the exotic pools. Their combinations then become underlays in the pools and the professionals that bet into the pools at the last seconds will take the overlays. Hence their most favoured selections end up moving from an underlay to right price or a small overlay whilst the pros having a bet in the last second are being left with the "second rate" pre-race overlays. This has been a smart trick exploited by a few for years.
Slide 5 - More plays for Exotic betting.
1. We use a couple of runners as bankers for 1st in our betting. If these runners come second, the Quinella dividend acts as a very important saver return - we don't always win on the race (depends on the price of our bankers) but it is often a significant return to keep our bank afloat and ready for the next race. It's a much better strategy than betting into the mathematically challenged place pool via an each-way or single place bet.
2. Exactas are targeted poorly by the general punter in the TAB. If they do attack an exacta they often have the same outlay on all their exacta combinations (via a standout exacta) which is poor staking. Using RewardBet to place your exotics, and especially exactas is a very profitable strategy. We see that in the returns to our customers.
3. Trifectas are by far the best exotic play - but keep in mind the run of outs. We structure our Quinella, Exacta and Trifecta bets expecting to hit one trifecta return every 15 to 20 races. So those other races you need to receive some good Quinella and Exacta dividends. Of course if you have a very good bank you can bet Trifectas exclusively using our Custom level - just beware of the run of outs, but the returns will be worth it in the long run!
4. Related to all betting is your bank size. If you have a $200 bank you should be betting about $10 total per race, maximum. We see too many customers deposit $100, have a $50 RewardBet - miss the winner. Repeat the next race - miss the winner - and then give up on RewardBet. That's absolutely crazy. We know RewardBet is by far the best edge any punter can have in the marketplace but you have to still have some respect for your own actions and be sensible with your outlays. If you do, RewardBet will look after you - by providing better returns and helping your bank last longer providing you more entertainment, more opportunity and much more engaging racing experience!
Slide 6 - Some Quaddie Thinking.
1. We generally avoid Quaddies because there is no convenient tool to stake them correctly. If you are betting Quaddies like most people, you are taking a 4 x 4 x 4 x Field or similar bet. This is just crazy on every level. Yes, they can be fun as an interesting "social bet" but that type of staking is simply crazy. The only time you'll win is when the outsiders of your runners get up - so again it's a hope bet which is not what successful punting is about. The psychology of punters wanting to put the field in the last leg "as they can't cope with hitting three legs and still missing out" is so apparent but utterly disappointing to see. Surely, you're a smarter punter than that?
2. We have plans for RewardBet Quaddies. They will be an amazing dimension to your Quaddie experience. Watch this space!
3. Instead of taking a silly constructed Quaddie like mentioned above - why don't you bet smarter? Sure, isolate each leg with the 2, 3 or more selections that you think have the best chance. But then bet EACH LEG as a RewardBet. Divide your total Quaddie outlay by four. So if you'll going to have a $200 Quaddie, now you're taking 4 x $50 RewardBets. On the first leg, you may have only two strong chances. Great - make it a $50 Bronze bet, putting most of your total stake into the WIN pool. The second leg, you may have 5 chances - this could be a GOLD RewardBet - providing you the safety or a return if you hit the winner, but more upside if you're lucky and get 2nd and/or 3rd as well. Similarly for the other legs. This is a much smarter way of betting a Quaddie. You have four separate legs running for you. You are never "out in the first leg" like in a traditional Quaddie. You have the opportunity for a multitude of different returns in each leg and you can structure your bets across legs depending on your confidence. This is what smart punting is all about!
Slide 7 - Mimic the professionals!
1. Never box bet or place the same stake on every selection again. This is not professional. You have RewardBet to allow every bet, be it Win, Quinella, Exacta or Trifecta to be staked properly - according to each individual chance - like a professional - to win you more.
2. Professionals don't "hope" they jag a good return in their field legs. They don't "hope" the outsider gets up in the trifecta photo-finish. Professionals have every combination staked so that it doesn't matter which of their runners hit the line for first - this is the way it should be. And you can then experience relaxing photo finishes!
3. Confidence is one of the most important aspects to punting successfully. RewardBet helps you maintain it.
Slide 8 - RewardBet's Additional Returns Illustrated
This analysis shows how much RewardBet can contribute to your additional returns. In this example over 34,000 races were analysed. We chose to take the top 4 selections in a rating system we were following.
1. As you can see, backing the top four for the Win provided a loss of -10.2% when they were equally flat staked.
That's actually not so bad ... so although it was a loss, theoretically it should have been more (if using a pin) so the ratings used in this analysis do have some merit which is good to see.
2. When RewardBet's staking according to price and probability was applied the additional returns were simply remarkable. Even with Win betting there was a 5% uplift in returns (albeit still a loss) but across the other bet types the increase using RewardBet's staking was sensational.
These are the types of uplift that our customers see every day across their betting - we even show customers now in their 'My Bets' history what this uplift is - we call it the RewardBet Advantage.
It's worth noting that across Greyhound and Harness betting the RewardBet Advantage can be even greater.
The take-away is this: if you are NOT using RewardBet for your betting - from Win to Exotics - you are essentially robbing yourself and just adding more to the coffers of the professionals. It's as simple as that.
Even if you are not an overall winning punter (and of course many aren't) RewardBet will provide you with more returns, allowing your bank to last longer and providing you more time to hit that great return you deserve.
Slide 9 - RewardBet's Win Betting.
RewardBet is not only about exotics. As we've seen - it even increases returns for Win betting. In fact one of our major customers bets purely win across a 100% Win Custom Reward Level that he setup.
1. RewardBet Galloping bets are Best Of Four (LuxDiv product from Luxbet) - and that is a very competitive product already. Combined with RewardBet's staking it is even better.
2. However, we also offer Fixed Win, Best Of Best, Top Fluc choices as well (we can offer whatever operators provide). This way your win component can be locked-in prior to any adverse price movements. Great for punters following tipping services.
3. These days, many punters want to place their bets as close to the jump as possible. And who could blame them - as there are many late price movements and other information disseminated from the mounting yard and on the racing broadcasts. There is no faster way to professionally stake all your bets for a race in a single transaction than RewardBet. Many customers wait until the horses are moving into the barriers to place their RewardBets - all staked properly with the last minute prices as the basis. It's really a terrific way to bet.
Slide 10 - Some RewardBet Secrets
1. Generally greyhound betting is dominated by a vast amount of "mug money" coming from the fact it's popular late evening in the pubs and clubs around the country. All these small, badly constructed and staked bets, add up to a very good opportunity for players who bet into these pools professionally. The RewardBet Advantage across greyhound racing is often three times what it is for galloping races. As one customer said: "It's the most fun I've had gambling" - and he played greyhounds with the same numbers every race. Something to consider.
2. Harness also has a sweet spot and it appears to be Exactas. These continue to show the greatest advantage to our customers mainly we believe because trifecta bets are well targeted by the professionals and the exacta bets are more the domain of the "mug money" with plenty of standout bets which are effectively poorly staked.
3. Using the "edit prices" feature to slightly adjust or "roll the board" for the prices of runners you think are not quite priced correctly by the market is a very favourable way to bet.
Slide 11 - RewardBet Summary
1. Fundamentally you can't argue with mathematics. In punting, maths in the guise of probability determines everything. RewardBet's staking that mimics that of professionals (and bets to the cent on exotics) has been proven over seven million bets. You can either go with the mathematics or try and go against it. If you do the latter, there is only one path you'll head down in the long run.
2. RewardBet doesn't choose the selections for you, of course. That is still up to you - however, our Market Gauge, Exotic Estimates and Reward Levels help you to structure your bets in such a way that you'll have the best chance of winning IF you hit that winner. Remember that many punters don't win over all of course but race betting and punting is all about the excitement, engagement and having the best run for your money. RewardBet certainly provides all those ingredients - you won't find a more engaging, exciting and powerful way to bet on racing - you may not end up a winner, but you'll have the best time taking up the challenge - and in the end - that is what it is all about for most punters: having a great time betting.
Remember not to over-bet - keep up your confidence - and enjoy the punting journey!